Monday, September 27, 2010

Blog Your Way to Lottery Success

In a fairly recent post on a hupage blog a blogger answered a question posed about the lottery. After being asked if it was possible to win the lottery he said it was if you don't play! Citing the fact that you have almost zero chance of winning the jackpot the author claimed that you have almost the same odds of winning the lottery as someone who never bought a ticket. He obviously doesn't know how to play the game!

There are many reasons not to expect a win on a lottery game. Now there are many, many reasons for thinking that winning the lottery is so far-fetched of a goal that it is silly to even play. I will show you some of those reasons here. However, these apply only to ordinary lottery tickets.

Did you know that many experts claim you have a better chance of being hit by lightening than winning a jackpot prize on the lottery? The blog post mentioned earlier also highlighted that a man has a better chance of dating a super-model (1 in 88K) than he has of winning the lottery. The author also stated that there is a better chance of being hit by a falling rock from the sky (odds of being killed by an asteroid are apparently 1 in 20K) than there is of hitting a lottery jackpot.

Let's put things into perspective here. The statistics offered by our well-meaning blogger may be technically correct they do not tell the whole story. Even though the blogger went to great lengths to demonstrate that the lottery was a mere game of luck and chance he continued to use mathematics and probability to prove his point - strange that you would use probability and maths to prove chance!

He used a probability model to explain that certain improbable events are more likely to occur than winning the lottery. So although he claimed that the lottery was a game of chance he proved it was actually a game of probability!

Well the good thing about probability is that it can be worked with. In his supermodel example, outlined above, an ordinary guy has 1 in 88K chance of dating a supermodel but do you think these odds would stay the same for that guy if he got a job that put him in close proximity of supermodels every day?

It makes sense right! A normal guy can greatly increase his odds of dating a supermodel just by making sure he meets some! By getting a job where he works with supermodels or socialising in places where supermodels socialise or just by going to places where they are he will greatly increase his odds of actually dating one.

The same applies to playing the lottery. Only a normal ticket, bought in the normal way, gives you terrible odds. Like 1 in 13,983,816 for the National Lottery in the UK. However, when you use mathematics and work with the law of probability you can reduce these odds very significantly and give yourself a real chance of winning.

Of course buying a standard ticket gives you odds that are so low you are better saving your money but using a proven system that works and uses mathematics and probability to increase your chances of winning is much better than just not playing.

I hope you can see that our friendly blogger made some assumptions about the lottery which are not entirely accurate. It is not merely a game of chance and while he went to great lengths to show that it is he used probability and maths to do it - which shows it is also reliant on those things.

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