Friday, October 1, 2010

If You Want To Win the Lottery Avoid Reading Blogs!

On a recent personal blog post (on hubpages) a guy said that you can guarantee a win on the lottery by not playing. Because the odds of winning a lottery jackpot prize are so low the author contends that you can only win the lottery by not playing and keeping your money. This is one blogger who has no idea how to work with mathematics although, as you will see, he thinks he does!

There is no question about the fact that winning a lottery jackpot prize is a difficult task to accomplish. Now there are many, many reasons for thinking that winning the lottery is so far-fetched of a goal that it is silly to even play. I will show you some of those reasons here. What is not commonly known is that the terrible odds the lottery offers apply only to ordinary tickets.

The odds of winning any lottery jackpot regardless of its type are so stacked against you that you often have a better chance of being dead by the time of the draw than winning! The blog post mentioned earlier also highlighted that a man has a better chance of dating a super-model (1 in 88K) than he has of winning the lottery. The author also stated that there is a better chance of being hit by a falling rock from the sky (odds of being killed by an asteroid are apparently 1 in 20K) than there is of hitting a lottery jackpot.

Let's put things into perspective here. The statistics offered by our well-meaning blogger may be technically correct they do not tell the whole story. Even though the blogger went to great lengths to demonstrate that the lottery was a mere game of luck and chance he continued to use mathematics and probability to prove his point - strange that you would use probability and maths to prove chance!

He used a probability model to explain that certain improbable events are more likely to occur than winning the lottery. So although he claimed that the lottery was a game of chance he proved it was actually a game of probability!

What the blogger fails to realise is that you can use the law of probability to alter your odds in the lottery. In his supermodel example, outlined above, an ordinary guy has 1 in 88K chance of dating a supermodel but do you think these odds would stay the same for that guy if he got a job that put him in close proximity of supermodels every day?

It makes sense right! A normal guy can greatly increase his odds of dating a supermodel just by making sure he meets some! By getting a job where he works with supermodels or socialising in places where supermodels socialise or just by going to places where they are he will greatly increase his odds of actually dating one.

The same applies to playing the lottery. Only a normal ticket, bought in the normal way, gives you terrible odds. Like 1 in 13,983,816 for the National Lottery in the UK. However, when you use mathematics and work with the law of probability you can reduce these odds very significantly and give yourself a real chance of winning.

So by incorporating a scientific approach to buying tickets you can work with the law of probability to help you win some prizes. Surely this is a much better option that the silly advice not to play offered by the blogger.

I think bloggers should investigate the mathematics behind lotteries before they jump to misjudged conclusions and make false claims that the lottery is merely a game of chance (ignoring the fact that it is a game of probabilities) while at the same time using mathematics and he law of probability to try to prove their point!

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